The IMF’s “40% of jobs” AI warning: what it means for small businesses in Southeast Asia

AI 26 Oct 2026 3 min read

On 12 October 2026, at the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva called AI a “slow-moving tsunami” for jobs, education and taxes. She said the IMF estimates that, over time, around 40% of jobs globally could be augmented, downgraded or eliminated by AI, rising to 60% in advanced economies.

The headline number sounds scary. It is worth knowing where it comes from and what it actually says.

Where the 40% comes from

The figure comes from an IMF staff analysis published in January 2024. In an IMF blog post, Georgieva wrote that “almost 40 percent of global employment is exposed to AI.”

“Exposed” does not mean “replaced”. The IMF says AI will replace some jobs and complement others. In advanced economies, it estimates about 60% of jobs may be affected, and roughly half of those may benefit from AI through higher productivity.
Exposure is lower in emerging markets. The IMF puts it at about 40% in emerging market economies and 26% in low-income countries, so they face fewer immediate disruptions.
The bigger risk there is being left behind. The IMF warns that many of these countries lack the infrastructure and skilled workers to benefit from AI, which could widen the gap between countries over time.

How Malaysia and its neighbours score

The IMF built an AI Preparedness Index that measures readiness in four areas: digital infrastructure, people and labour-market policies, innovation and economic integration, and regulation and ethics. Scores run from 0 to 1. In the IMF’s 2023 data:

Singapore: 0.80 (one of the highest scores in the index)
Malaysia: 0.63
Thailand: 0.54
Indonesia: 0.52
Philippines: 0.50
Vietnam: 0.48

Malaysia is ahead of most of its neighbours but well behind Singapore.

What the IMF said about Asia this month

In Bangkok, Georgieva also said the AI investment boom could lift growth in advanced Asian economies by half a percentage point to one full point, and in emerging Asian economies by 0.2 to 0.8 points. She said routine, repetitive jobs were shrinking. At the same event, Singapore’s President Tharman Shanmugaratnam warned that demand for graduates’ first jobs is falling.

What this means for a small business

1. Routine work changes first. Repetitive tasks are the ones AI is already taking over. For many small businesses, answering the same customer questions every day (prices, opening hours, stock, bookings) is the most repetitive job there is.

2. Use AI to help your team, not to drop the human touch. The IMF’s own analysis expects AI to help many workers become more productive. Let AI handle routine questions so your staff have time for sales, complaints and customers who need a real person.

3. Skills matter as much as tools. The IMF says readiness depends on people as well as technology. A tool only helps if someone on your team knows how to set it up, check its answers and keep its information up to date.

4. Keep a person in charge. AI should answer from information you approved, say “I don’t know” when it doesn’t know, and hand over to a human when it should.

Where ThinkChat fits

ThinkChat is an AI Chat Agent and multi-channel AI customer service platform. WhatsApp is the main channel in Malaysia, and ThinkChat also works on Instagram, Facebook Messenger, Telegram, website chat and more. It is built to take the routine customer questions off your team’s plate, answer from information you approved, and hand over to a person when a customer needs one.

Soft next step

Want an AI Chat Agent to answer your customers 24/7? Talk to Lyia on WhatsApp: +60 11-5515 9317.

Sources

Checked 26 October 2026.

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